Case ID: QA-0748
Solution ID: 39731

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Case Analysis

A large general-merchandise retailer misses its fiscal year earnings-per-share guidance, so its CFO is charged with improving the firm's forecasts. This case presents the use of probability distributions for forecasting discrete and continuous uncertainties such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, including the benefit of ranges and distributions over point estimates. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters is introduced as a source of forecasts.


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